So far, the ruble is supported by an excess of foreign currency due to the expanded trade balance of the Russian Federation.
Recently, the ruble exchange rate against the dollar and other world currencies has strengthened. This became possible thanks to a number of measures taken by the Russian government, Egor Zhilnikov, chief analyst at Promsvyazbank, explained in a conversation with PRIME.
The excess of foreign currency against the backdrop of an expansion in the trade balance became possible due to the restriction of imports into the country.
In addition, the demand for the Russian ruble has increased as more and more countries (Bloomberg names 10 countries) pay for Russian gas in rubles by opening accounts with Gazprombank.
And finally, the tax period against the backdrop of the end of &# 8220;winter” of the season also formed the dollar supply.
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation also played a positive role in the abolition of currency control and a 12% commission on the purchase of dollars.
However, the latter measure, according to the expert, may soon time to both increase foreign exchange liquidity and reduce it.
As a result, the dollar may show both a rebound to the level of 75 rubles and a further fall.
“Most likely, the trade balance will begin to narrow in May against the backdrop of a recovery in imports to the country, as well as a correction of overheated prices in the energy market. This may well bring the ruble into more fundamentally justified ranges,” the expert believes.
In turn, Alexander Bakhtin, an investment strategist at BCS Mir Investments, also came to the conclusion that the ruble exchange rate next month will depend on the decisions of the Bank of Russia to ease foreign exchange controls, as well as external conditions.
However, even today, the baseline forecast shows the growth of the dollar against the ruble to 80-82 rubles immediately after the holidays in May.
At the same time, none of the options is favorable for Russia, since if the dollar exchange rate rises to 85-90 rubles or more, it will only show inflationary pressure, and the strengthening of the ruble to 72 and below will harm the budget filling rate.
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